|Management of Measurement Constructs
Notebook: May 31, 2004
Working with Probabilities
I remember vividly some 30 years ago, in the early Summer, just getting my grip on the astounding reliability of the Jupiter reward cycle (twelve years to the month conjunct the same point, usually the natal Sun, once the cycle begins). I was seeing a client on a Sunday. She was a schoolteacher, who had recently been let go by the School System as part of a budget cutback program. She was depressed, understandably, and was hoping for some miracle to drop from the skies to establish employment.
In my preparation I noted that tr Jupiter was to be precisely on her natal Sun on that day of consultation, on that Sunday. In my zeal with the Jupiter reward cycle, I proclaimed the miracle she was hoping for, and, in my over-dramatization of it, I said it was TODAY, that Sunday, that something would come through to reward her!!!!!!!!
Now, I recognize that young energy in me then, throwing caution to the wind, in an effort to restore my client’s faith in herself somehow. I’m sure I suggested that a reward would rescue her “during that month”, but I recall also making a big issue of the specific day, that Sunday we were meeting. The lady left me early in the afternoon. Three hours later she telephoned me: she had been rehired by the School System right after leaving our consultation!!
On a Sunday!!!??? What had happened was that, on a whim, driving home, she had stopped by the teacher’s Union Office to look at the Bulletin Board for any leads for the next week. In the hallway, she had encountered the head Supervisor of her district and they started talking. She explained her plight, and he revealed that he was working that Sunday to solve a big problem that had just come up and he said that my client would be his solution. Right then and there, he re-hired her into a super position. He saved her; she saved him!
Now, I think my behavior was over exuberant ; what if the reward cycle did not pay off for her, that day or that month?but enthusiasm was certainly called for to instill confidence and improve mood, etc.
The reward cycle does not always pay off, we know that, so we must be cautious with it. Within reality assessment, the client has to be in the right position at the right time; i.e., Newton had to go into the garden for the apple to drop! --So gradually over the years, I’ve learned to present potentials in terms of probabilities, often.
I think it is reasonable and circumspect to say to a client, “The probability of the home being sold between April 15 and May 30 is quite high, perhaps 80%, with the most acute time for sale being the first five days of May.” Or, “The inflammation in your knees will abate probably in ten days” (when tr Mars moves 4-5 degrees out of a focused pain area). The client is more comfortable with probabilities than with dramatic specificity which is possible, of course, but relatively unusual.
Every time I get that feeling for THE specific date, I keep it graceful by making sport of it: “And if you really want to tempt the gods, we can say October 16-18 is the time period the job will come in. I sure hope so; everything you are doing is certainly lining up properly. Let’s wish for it. --If not then, there are another three weeks to go in that clear period of opportunity.”
Our objective in strategic prediction for a client is fourfold:
1. Is the projection by the client reasonable? Do common sense and reality assessment add up to reasonably high probability? Can the client be visualized in the new position, or the house being sold, etc.?
2. What will be required for the environment to cooperate with the person’s projection, wishes, goals? --This is the “iffy” spot. What will make the judge sympathetic about the situation? Is that dimension present and have the lawyers presented it to the judge strongly? --Is the house in good shape to be seen and responded to positively by potential buyers? --Does the list of firms look good to respond to what the client has to offer; is my client needed by those firms?
3. Is there family support for the big relocation plan? --Without that support, a problem is being created rather than an opportunity. Is there a support mechanism for the client in the projection of whatever is hoped for? Does the new business being launched have an assessed clientele; has pre-launch marketing proven positive for success?
4. Does the astrology fit the reality structure in time? Here, the astrologer must guard ever so carefully against his or her own personal wish-fulfillment on behalf of the client. Considerations of these conditions increase the probability of astrological predictions paying off.
Next Update: June 30, 2004