|Management of Measurement Constructs
April 1, 2003The Vagaries of Precision
With the world crises over the past two years, there has been much interest and work focused within Mundane Astrology, an extremely demanding use of astrology, dealing with the horoscopes of nations and the bringing of cosmic phenomena down to earth.
Every seasoned Mundane astrologer –and there are few—has a track record of formidably precise “hits” in prediction, that’s our “coming of age”: I had published predictions of the fall of the Soviet Union eighteen months ahead of time, exact to the month; the meeting of Israel and the PLO in their land-for-peace accord in Washington D.C. also eighteen months ahead of time, exact to the week. And most recently, we were able, in October 2002, six months ahead of time, to predict the outbreak of the Iraq war in late March (specifically March 24) just four days late. –These “hits” do tell us that astrology lives on Earth.
In my book about history and mundane projections into the future, Predictions for a New Millennium,written in 1995, I “pushed the envelope” of Mundane Astrology, as had never been done, to accomplish two important things: first, to excite astrologers to the potentials of Mundane Astrology in the busiest of modern times, taxing their synthesis of astrological techniques and knowledge of world events, to see what we do know and what we don’t; and, second, to show the public that Astrology and astrologers are educated, serious, and circumspect [to this end, to promote smooth reading, there was no astrological talk in the text; the technical stuff was all confined to the 573 footnotes].
The Mundane Astrologer must determine somehow the “birth of a nation”. For example, the birth of the modern state of Israel is definite, clear, tested, and extraordinarily reliable and productive astrologically [May 14, 1948 at 4:00 PM precisely, EET, in Tel Aviv]. Yet, the horoscope of the United States –which has been discussed on this Forum many, many times—is split over two or three “optimal” times and dates … as is the horoscope for England, France (the First and Fifth Republic charts are used together most often), modern Germany, modern Russia, etc. The problems are great. –We can come close to workable relevance, but we can rarely be sure.
When it comes to heads of state, like Saddam Hussein, there are demanding concerns about their birth horoscopes, their early beginnings, often at-home births in obscure villages, etc. –Russia still does not have the birth time of its President, Vladimir Putin; there is even doubt about George W. Bush.
And then there are the vagaries of reality, the component within the articulation of history which we can not yet harness, understand, use wisely. I liken this to the problem of so many people being born with identical or extremely similar horoscopes and, while similarities of behavioral development are obvious, distinct individualized differences emerge. We can say that environmental conditioning and genetic influences are at work in these cases, in all cases, and astrology as yet has no grip on genetics.
And lastly there is the dimension of the spirit –something to which I give great developmental respect. For example, every pope of the modern era since the ratification of the Vatican [June 7, 1929 at 11:00 AM in Vatican City] ended his position as Pope “on schedule,” if I may. The changes of popes were very clear [please see pages 532-541, Synthesis & Counseling in Astrology], EXCEPT for the present pope, John Paul II. Something has transcendentally pushed this Pope far beyond his term. It is inexplicable astrologically.
So, the Mundane astrologer sees that a “profile of violence” clearly emerges from the Israel horoscope in relation to the bombings; a high profile of governmental change from the high-tension elections; and an eternal conflict with its neighbors … all very, very reliably (unfortunately) visible in that nation’s astrology. Yet, with the Catholic media already for years now compiling lists and strategies with regard to the “next” pope, with the Pope surviving an assassination attempt, falling, ailing, somatically broken down, Pope John Paul continues to inspire his world.
Astrology can not explain these things, anticipate these things … yet. So there are vagaries linked with precision. Exactness becomes the art of probability.
Another example: Chirac of France went into his last election under enormous tension for change; this supported the prediction that he would step down. He didn’t, but his win was by a very, very narrow margin. But it doesn’t help to say he “almost did”; but we do learn from this. --Helmut Kohl, the grand German statesman for so long has a horoscope that predicted a win yet again in the last election, but with an underlying ill health profile. He lost the election by the narrowest of margins: less that one-half of one percent! Another “almost won.”
How can astrology assimilate these close calls. Maybe the gentlemen’s horoscopes were rounded off by the Church Registry (as is common in Europe, to the quarter hour)? And there are two disparate times for John Paul II. –What we don’t know plagues us; our very craft, anchored in time, can easily be defeated by our measure and record of time.
And how can we embrace the subtleties of history-in-the-making, the machinations in the back corridors of the political establishment, seasoned by cultural and religious traditional ways?
Another example: the Iraq horoscope is clear and reliable. I was able to write copiously about it (my book Prediction in Astrology) and the necessity for the First Gulf War, with its outbreak and termination dates precise to the day months ahead of time. BUT, as accurate as it was for that war, it became inaccurate for further prediction with regard to regime change. Every measurement was clear as a bell for such change, but it did not happen, some six times, in the last 10 years.
But staying humble about this process, looking around continuously, we can find a partial answer to what happened: two years ago, ABC TV did a special on Iraq and in great detail had unearthed the facts that the exiled opposition government, working with the Northern Iraq contingents, with religious group compilations as well, had tried some 6 times to overthrow Saddam Hussein … Just when astrology had predicted that it was possible.
The fly in the ointment, the dust in the measurements, the back-corridor machinations reported by ABC (Peter Jennings) were that the CIA had many times backed out at the eleventh hour and withdrawn assistance from the resistance forces. The coups failed. –We can not capture those twice, thrice-removed vagaries with our astrology. We saw the intent, but we couldn’t assimilate the underachievement.
We have these same concerns with our individual clients as well: there are birthtime vagaries, inaccurate mother-memories, false records, the hyper-influence of a spouse (whose horoscope appears to take over), the invasion of ill health, the disruption by unpredictable accident, etc. But with ever better hospital record keeping, with ever-growing appreciation for astrology among the public, and with astrologers who are sensitive, circumspect, educated, and caring humanistically, these problems are becoming fewer and more slender all the time. We can say it with conviction when we know a horoscope is inaccurate. We can adjust our technique through our knowledge and resourcefulness.
I was able to predict Princess Diana’s death (“a death in the royal family”, written with grace and circumspection, as much as I was able) through the horoscope of Charles and their children, not through hers [it is not there; as with most accidents]. The information was clear, dramatic, and needed to be brought forward –just as the statistically high probability of the threat to the president (based upon an emergent death-in-office signature through the history of the United States presidency) must be brought forward.
With nations, it is critical to understand that we are dealing with the mind-set of millions and millions and millions of people, working together for centuries within a national persona, headed by an individual who becomes the nation. –This is daunting awareness indeed challenging our ever developing astrological techniques. And it is just that scope of awesome considerations that supports criticism of Astrology still.
Who hasn’t seen a client who develops in life conspicuously and consistently 1˝ years after the time we think they should?
So it becomes extremely important within our study of analytical techniques in Astrology that we respect the potential for vagary surrounding precision, that we do not “sell” astrology as a precise mechanism of fate, and that we keep ever vigilant to assimilate the intangibles. In this way we can respect the process of astrology in relation to realities in development, and we can hope for continual inspiration about political nuance, collective consciousness, and genetics and how to present these concepts through our art out into the world.
Next Update: April 30, 2003